Causality 101

(In a statistical training we just attended on pooled and panel data analysis, our trainer Dr. Dennis Mapa, a statistician-economist reviewed John Stuart Mill's necessary conditions to establish causality or causal argument. Sans the mathematical proofs that sometimes rob us of the intuition , he so clearly summarized that TO ESTABLISH CAUSALITY, one has to establish that (1) the cause preceded the effect; (2) the cause was related to the effect; and (3) we can find no plausible alternative explanation for the effect other than the cause. He added that TO BE ABLE TO USE A RESULT FOR FORECASTING, one has to establish a fourth condition: (4) Past values of your outcome variable does not affect current values of your policy variable. And finally, TO BE ABLE TO ESTABLISH A POLICY EFFECT, one has to establish that the beta coefficient for that policy variable is not changing through time. 

While reality in empirical research is limited by resources--time, budget, willing subjects-- so that a "perfect data" is, most of the time never available and difficult to produce, the discussion reminded me to at least try my best to always have these conditions in mind from conceptualization to data gathering to data analyses to report-writing. Anyway, below is an exercise I found in the net on Mill's methods/conditions on causal arguments that drives the points very simply.)

 Exercise 20. Answer the following questions, and explain your answers.

i. Are causal arguments required to explain how the purported cause causes the effect?
ii. Are causal arguments required to show that the purported cause is the only thing that ever causes the effect?
iii. Are causal arguments required to show that the purported cause absolutely always causes the effect?
iv. Can a causal argument succeed without showing that the purported cause is at least sometimes correlated with the effect?
v. Can a causal argument be based on a "cause" that hasn't been previously proved to exist?
vi. Can a causal argument be based only on the fact that the "cause" is always absent whenever the effect is absent?
vii. Can a causal argument work if something else is just as strongly correlated with the effect as the purported cause?
viii. Can a causal argument be based on anecdotal evidence?
ix. Does the "cause" have to have a one-to-one correspondence with the effect?
x. Is "it's the only thing I can think of" ever a good causal argument?

Exercise 21. Answer the following questions, and explain your answers.

i. Is it possible to make a successful causal argument without any evidence of a correlation between the effect and the thing that’s supposed to be causing it?
ii. Is it possible to make a successful causal argument without providing an explanation of how the purported cause might cause the effect?
iii. Is it possible to make a successful causal argument without providing any evidence that the purported cause even exists?
iv. Is it possible to make a successful causal argument if it is proven that the purported cause sometimes happens without being followed by the effect?
v. Is it possible to make a successful causal argument based on a single incident?
vi. Is it possible to make a successful causal argument if it is proven that the effect sometimes happens even though the purported cause is not present?
vii. Is it possible to make a successful causal argument based only on the fact that no-one else can think of anything that could cause the effect?

Exercise answers:

20.
i. No.
ii. Nope.
iii. Nuh-ah!
iv. Well, no.
v. Good god, no! (oops, he can say it better next time-che)
vi. No way.
vii. No. Are you kidding?
viii. Noooooooo.
ix. Ha! No.
x. Don’t make me laugh!
(All answers are "no.")

21.
i. No.
ii. Yes.
iii. No.
iv. Yes.
v. No.
vi. Yes.
vii. No. 

(SOURCE:  Martin C. Young, 2009 see full article at http://www.madwizard.com/ctl_causal.htm)

Thanksgiving for Chairo at 1

A treat for my sweet boys

(Photo taken by Khane)

Chairo at 11 mos

Quotable quotes from the rice trade policy seminar

"Anyway, it is a postponement of the inevitable."-Roehlano Briones (on rice tarrification vs. QR)

"Let me be the husband that the pregnant wife curses."-Ramon Clarete (on rice trade liberalization)

Tatalon-talon ang engine

While I was driving Khane to school,

Khane: Mama, ang kaya mo lang overtake-an ay iyung mababagal at maliliit?
Mama: Oo anak, at kahit maliliit kung mabilis hindi ko oovertake-an.
Khane: Tricycle, motor, bike lang mama?
Mama: Oo tsaka kuliglig. Alam mo ba iyung kuliglig?
Khane: Mama, ung tatalon-talon ang engine sa harap at 'kushuug'?
:) :) :)

Let him that glorieth glory in this:

Jeremiah 9:23-24

English Standard Version (ESV)

²³ Thus says the Lord: “Let not the wise man boast in his wisdom, let not the mighty man boast in his might, let not the rich man boast in his riches, ²⁴ but let him who boasts boast in this, that he understands and knows me, that I am the Lord who practices steadfast love, justice, and righteousness in the earth. For in these things I delight, declares the Lord.”

New International Version (NIV)

²³ This is what the Lord says:

“Let not the wise boast of their wisdom
    or the strong boast of their strength
    or the rich boast of their riches,
²⁴ but let the one who boasts boast about this:
    that they have the understanding to know me,
that I am the Lord, who exercises kindness,
    justice and righteousness on earth,
    for in these I delight,”
declares the Lord.

 King James Version (KJV)

²³ Thus saith the Lord, Let not the wise man glory in his wisdom, neither let the mighty man glory in his might, let not the rich man glory in his riches:
²⁴ But let him that glorieth glory in this, that he understandeth and knoweth me, that I am the Lord which exercise lovingkindness, judgment, and righteousness, in the earth: for in these things I delight, saith the Lord.

Chairo milestones: teeth

Lolo Domingo's eyes

The judging that shoos not woos others to Christ

It is really very difficult to glorify God every day of our lives. In the research institute I work at, not a few of the Christians struggle to keep their testimonies. The only Christian director we had was sadly relieved of his position in relation to many issues. Some of the more vocal Christians are disliked or hated either because they are tactless, proud, arrogant, or just being very judgmental. Some are also disliked simply because they seem to be the ‘holy art thous’. I, for one, made a terrible mistake in one period of my life because I thought I was doing a family I was counseling some good. The fact was I did not; it just felt good being depended at, and I got caught in the miry clay. That chapter of my life is now long buried and I know that my transgression is blotted out by virtue of the blood of Christ. But yes, the damage has been done.

Just now, an officemate can’t help but cry because she read a surprising very judgmental email from a professing Christian. She told me to read it and while it probably meant to rebuke, it didn’t arrive well; actually it arrived as a very unkind condemning judgment even to me who was not involved. Worse, the accused was not given a chance to explain. Worst, based on the facts I gathered, the accused cannot be guilty as judged. This is another one of the many cases of a Christian’s judgmental tendencies that shoos others rather than woos. And it was a written message, not a spoken one (so it must have been thought over well somehow). It can forever be saved in the inbox where the recipient can save for future investment in resentment. It didn’t even start with a “dear” and had no “might” or “maybes”. It condemned even before it loved.

It is a very sad picture because our God is rich in mercy and loves us so much, and all He wants is for us to love Him, and love our neighbors as ourselves. He was very gracious to us, saving us, because we cannot save ourselves. And now, still by His grace, there is now no condemnation due us who believe. So if God was that gracious and merciful to us, how can we not be more gracious and less condemning and judgmental of others?

Revealing yourself workshop

(During our teambonding, our facilitator asked us to answer the following questions:)


1. My greatest accomplishment so far is...
2. My greatest fear is...
3. If I only have three months to live, I will...
4. In case of fire, the first three things I will save are...
5. My most memorable experience is...
6. At the end of my life, I want to be remembered as...

(I find it nice to share it here para sa mga may gustong pag-isipan din ang kani-kanilang sagot sa mga tanong. Happy muni-muni.)

And  may I add some two more very relevant questions (c/o EE International) albeit the framing talks about death which is something no one really wants to talk about. Nevertheless, why don't we give these questions some time of day.

1. Have you come to the place in your spiritual life where you know for certain that if you were to die today that you would go to heaven?
2.  Suppose you were to die today and stand before God and He were to say to you, “why should I let you into My heaven? What would you say?

TEAM

T - transparency
E - encouragement
A - accountability
M - mentoring

(learned during our PhilRice teambonding at Bakasyunan Resort, Iba, Zambales)

Chairo receives the sign and seal of the covenant

(We thank God for His covenant of grace. As believing parents, we understand that the same blessings of salvation that Christ has won for us will also be enjoyed by our son Chairo. On May 13, 2012, the sign and seal of the covenant have been administered to him by Rev. Clave Ray D. Hicks. Oh, that God will grant us the wisdom and grace to encourage Chairo to love and serve the Lord who has died for him.-Che)

Ninang Jhuny, Ninong Roy, Ninong Robert, Ninang Choi, Ninang Lhen, Ninang Benita, Ninang Minda and Ninong Elmer

"Hindi lang Ninong/Ninang pag Pasko."

Chairo and Ninang Benita

Chairo and Ninang Lhen

Chairo and Tita Liza and Ninang Minda